How to find high-impact topics
- Nadine Rinderknecht
- Dec 17, 2023
- 13 min read
Updated: Apr 7
This guide shows you how to spot high-impact topics in technology law, shape regulatory frameworks and address societal challenges before they become critical.
Level: advanced
Content
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Step 1: Understand why it matters
Become active before the hype blinds you. Engage in proactive research, pioneer legal perspectives, and bring attention to overlooked issues. More here.
Step 2: Learn the basics of the Hype Cycle
The Gartner Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies provides guidance on the maturity and adoption of new technologies in 5 phases. More here.
Step 3: Assess your Hype Cycle
Focus on technologies ahead of the hype. Don't just focus on technologies expected to reach the mainstream in more than 10 years. Use perplexity.ai to quickly understand the basics of these technologies. More here.
Step 4: Discover the 3 types of indicators
Take a holistic perspective to determine whether a technology has the potential to become your high-impact topic. So look out for strong technological, societal, and legal indicators. More here.
Step 5: Assess the characteristics of the technology
Look for technologies that have characteristics that are very different from the familiar technologies of today's world (technological indicators). More here.
Step 6: Assess the impact of the technology on society
Consider technologies that are likely to have a major societal impact (societal indicators). More here.
Step 7: Assess gaps in legal scholarship
Search for technologies that have never or just occasionally been addressed in the legal literature. Find a big "free spot" that you can fill with your innovations (legal indicators). More here.
Step 8: Mitigate your risks
Take high risks, sometimes! But make sure to mitigate them by connecting speculative topics to current trends, adopting short-term pessimism and long-term optimism, leveraging interdisciplinary perspectives, and timing research to maximize impact. Include also low-risk papers in your research agenda to get a more balanced output. More here.
Starting point
Especially for beginners, it might be hard to find a "free spot" with the potential for societal impact among all the ideas of scholars, courts, and other influential actors engaging in the legal discourse. This would typically require expert knowledge and a comprehensive overview of the digital economy, legal literature, case law, etc.
Tip 1: Explore an emerging technology that has not yet been covered (extensively) in the legal literature. This is one of the easiest ways to find a "free spot" especially for beginners. (You could also address any other new development, but this blog post focuses on emerging technologies). Take a big leap forward to reach a territory where only a few have set foot and pioneer your own idea. Since this is usually more challenging than writing a mainstream paper, take a look at the additional steps in How to write a truly innovative paper after you have found your high-impact topic here.
But wait... why does that even matter?
Step 1: Understand why it matters
Become active before the hype blinds you. Engage in proactive research, pioneer legal perspectives, and bring attention to overlooked issues.
Both the Hype Cycle and the 3 types of indicators allow you to filter out topics that you can write the first paper about. This enables you to:
Engage in proactive research by identifying technologies with a major disruptive potential before urgent crises appear – but while the trajectories of the technologies are still shapeable.
Pioneer legal perspectives by recognizing "free spots" that open up with the rise of radically new technologies that would otherwise be overlooked.
Bring attention to overlooked issues that are important to address but are obscured by the current hype of other technologies.
A Hype Cycle allows you, among other things, to take a step back and observe technology in the larger context of its expectation development so that you can assess opportunities and risks more objectively. Don't get blinded by the hype.
However, using the Hype Cycle or the indicators also exposes you to risks. In Step 5 you will learn how to mitigate them.
Step 2: Evaluate current and past Hype Cycles
The Gartner Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies provides guidance on the maturity and adoption of new technologies in 5 phases.
The Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies of the research, advisory, and information technology firm Gartner, Inc. ("Hype Cycle") provides guidance on the maturity and adoption of emerging technologies through five phases. It often influences the technology strategy and investment decisions within large companies. Below you can see the current Hype Cycle of 2023:
According to Gartner, Inc., the Hype Cycle has 5 phases:
Innovation Trigger: The first phase begins with a technological initiator. The attention is limited to the great expectations of the professional audience.
Peak of Inflated Expectations: As a result of intensive (media) reporting, attention increases exponentially until reaching a hype.
Trough of Disillusionment: Attention drops into a valley of disappointment due to unfulfilled expectations.
Slope of Enlightenment: With a realistic assessment of the advantages and disadvantages of the technology, attention finally rises along a path of enlightenment right up to the...
Plateau of Productivity: The initially overestimated, immature innovation has become a solid technology from a realistic perspective. It has reached mainstream adoption.
If you have already a technology in mind, you can also get inspired by Hype Cycles dedicated to specific technologies, for example, the Hype Cycle for Artificial Intelligence of 2023:
Look at this more simplified formulation by futurologist Roy Amara for a better understanding of technological hype ("Amara's Law"):
We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run. – Roy Amara
Tip 2: Be pragmatic. Use the Hype Cycle as a source of inspiration despite criticism. The Hype Cycle has been criticized also by academics, mainly because it's not fully based on empirical studies and lacks predictive accuracy (read this if you are interested in more details). However, in my opinion, it can still be useful – especially for beginners who might be overwhelmed by the many emerging technologies in the ever-changing IT landscape. Also, keep in mind that finding a promising topic is usually not an empirical task with predictive accuracy. Rather, it's often guided by the researchers' interests and intuition about what could become socially problematic in the future. Ah, and where the funding is. 😉
Step 3: Incorporate the 3 types of indicators into your analysis
Focus on technologies ahead of the hype. Don't just focus on technologies expected to reach the mainstream in more than 10 years. Use perplexity.ai to quickly understand the basics of these technologies.
Start with a current Hype Cycle. If you have not found an interesting topic after the steps below, check out the Hype Cycles of the previous years. As they look quite far into the future, they are generally still relevant today.
Next, focus on all the technologies at the beginning of the Hype Cycle, i.e. at the first half of the line between "Innovation Trigger" and "Peak of Inflated Expectations". Don't just focus on technologies that are expected to reach mainstream adoption ("Plateau of Productivity") in more than 10 years, even if they may seem more disruptive now.
These technologies are not necessarily the technologies that cause the most pressing problems just because they take longer to be widely adopted.
The predictions of Gartner might prove wrong so that mainstream adoption (and its harmful effects on society) could happen sooner than for technologies predicted to reach the mainstream in less than 10 years.
Ultimately, it's not about the time to mainstream adoption but the time to the hype, more precisely, the legal academic hype. If you aspire to become a pioneer, address new challenges before the hype starts among legal academics (this is usually after the hype among tech academics but before the general public hype at the "Peak of Inflated Expectations"). Try to identify the inflection point where legal academic interest starts accelerating (e.g., by using the indicators below) – rather than blindly relying on an estimated number provided by Gartner.
Tip 3: Use a chatbot like perplexity.ai to get a more thorough yet quick overview of the technologies. Understand the technologies in that first zone by reading at least the basics on the Gartner, Inc. website (e.g., here for the current Hype Cycle) or preferably using a chatbot for a deeper understanding.
Step 4: Discover the 3 types of indicators
Take a holistic perspective to determine whether a technology has the potential to become your high-impact topic. So look out for strong technological, societal, and legal indicators.
Your next step is to choose one of the many technologies (on or outside the Hype Cycle) with the help of technological, societal, and legal indicators.
Tip 4: Take a holistic perspective to determine whether a technology has the potential to become your high-impact topic. The indicators below are often intertwined. So don't focus on a single indicator, but look for strong indicators for each of the 3 categories. For example, a high-impact topic can be a technology that enhances human capabilities and is thus likely to lead to socio-economic changes that the literature has not yet addressed due to its novelty.
Tip 5: Use the list of indicators below as a source of inspiration and, ultimately, develop an intuition for what promising technologies look like. First, this list is by no means exhaustive. Consider other indicators if you need them. Second, don't blindly rely on the indicators, especially the tech examples. They are sometimes a bit dated and were only included to help you understand the indicators. Write about more recent technologies. Ultimately, it's important to develop your own intuition and free yourself from indicators.
Once you have found an interesting technology, check that it has:
unique characteristics compared to today's technologies (using technological indicators),
is likely to have a considerable impact on society (using societal indicators), and
leaves you a big "free spot" as it has not yet been (extensively) addressed by the legal literature (using legal indicators).
Considering strong technological, societal, and legal indicators will typically lead to a paper that has the potential to be both:
Valuable for society because a big societal impact leads not only to opportunities but also pressing issues for which we need to find solutions, and
Innovative because the uniqueness of the technology and the big "free spot" give you the intellectual freedom to unleash your creativity and invent disruptive ideas. It's true that innovation is not an end in itself. However, if you don't try to innovate, some valuable insights may never be discovered.
So check 3 boxes... but focus on the 2 ultimate goals of value and innovation. If you can check the 3 boxes but, contrary to expectations, don't see any potential for valuable and innovative ideas, it's better to start the process again. Don't get lost in the little things.
Tip 6: Be ambitious and leverage the potential of the topic. Just because the paper has the potential to be valuable and innovative doesn't mean it will be. It's up to you whether you make the most of the situation or not. Find out how to proceed in How to write a truly innovative paper.
Step 5: Assess the unique characteristics of the technology
Look for technologies that have characteristics that are very different from the familiar technologies of today's world (technological indicators).
These technologies...
Look like science fiction as they have abilities thought to be impossible until now (e.g., mind reading technologies).
Expand human capabilities because they introduce disruptive features (e.g., brain-computer interface).
Radically enhance automation of professions, tasks, or processes presumed to require general human intelligence (e.g., automated contract analysis).
Step 6: Assess the technological impact on society
Consider technologies that are likely to have a major societal impact (societal indicators).
Consider that a high societal impact of a topic increases the relevance, and thus, the possible impact of your paper. So choose technologies that typically...
Have a far-reaching societal impact that affects millions of people across diverse industries (e.g., foundation models like GPT-4).
Lead to a paradigm shift by challenging established practices (e.g., automation of professional services).
Create new ethical dilemmas with far-reaching consequences on humanity (e.g., lethal autonomous weapons).
Result in societal transitions by disrupting foundational social institutions, and power structures. Note, however, that the disruption might just be momentary and social institutions might integrate emerging technologies (e.g., banks that use blockchain and cryptocurrencies).
Cause unforeseen risks on society that were not intended by the businesses and might not be immediately visible (e.g., algorithmic bias).
Have global implications and overcome national boundaries (e.g., quantum communication networks).
Lead to technological convergence as one emerging technology converges with other emerging technologies and unlocks new synergies (e.g., the combination of AI, cloud, and quantum computing). In practical terms, the greatest impact on society often doesn't come from individual technologies, but from a mix. This can lead to increased, but also to qualitatively new opportunities and risks. (Recommendation: Opt for a more comprehensive analysis in your papers so as not to overlook the most important real-world issues.)
Step 7: Assess the gaps in legal scholarship
Search for technologies that have never or just occasionally been addressed in the legal literature. Find a big "free spot" that you can fill with your innovations (legal indicators).
These are important indicators...
Lack of existing legal scholarship because the technology raises unique legal challenges that have not yet been (extensively) addressed. This presents you with opportunities to establish foundational theories and frameworks (e.g., quantum computing).
Challenge for core assumptions on which legal principles are based. This could result in rules that must be followed even if they can no longer achieve their intended regulatory effect (e.g., the assumption that the principle of data minimization also minimizes risks is not effective, especially with small data. Small data is basically "data minimization by design" that, however, can have both positive and negative effects just like big data). Take this opportunity to revise principles and their underlying assumptions to avoid ineffective regulation.
Boundaries are blurred as the technology blurs legal definitions or concepts (e.g., smart home devices might change the definition of privacy). You can address this change and propose an adapted definition or concept to fit the technological change.
Need for new rights or new categories of risks/harms because the technology could lead to situations that don't fit into the existing regulation, or that fall under general norms but need to be concretized for legal clarity. In these situations, you can introduce new rights or new categories of risks/harms or derive them from existing rights or categories.
Step 8: Mitigate your risks
Take high risks, sometimes! But make sure to mitigate them by connecting speculative topics to current trends, adopting short-term pessimism and long-term optimism, leveraging interdisciplinary perspectives, and timing research to maximize impact. Include also low-risk papers in your research agenda to get a balanced output.
Writing innovative papers is usually more risky than writing more mainstream papers. Even if addressing an emerging technology has important advantages (see Step 1), you should keep these risks in mind and try to mitigate them.
1. Risk of excessive focus on speculative technology
You might be tempted to focus on hypothetical scenarios with technologies that are not yet mature. This might create a publication bias and neglect urgent problems in the real world..
Tip 7: Connect immature technology to current trends to add long-term perspectives. Find a technology that can be connected to current "hot topics" to increase the relevance of your paper already today, but also to add a more far-sighted perspective to the current literature.
2. Risk to make unrealistic assumptions
Don't get caught up in hype and make unrealistic assumptions about a technology's potential. Doing so could lead to disappointment, wasted resources, and missed opportunities to focus on more achievable goals.
Tip 8: Be realistic about short-term impacts and use diverse perspectives to counterbalance. Remember the saying "We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run." Try to evaluate the literature (and especially the media) on short-term effects with particular criticism and try to balance their overly optimistic statements out with a slight short-term pessimism – but remain optimistic for the long-term future! You can also use a chatbot to balance your perspective: Ask it to critically analyze a text and find counterarguments. Or to evaluate the text from the perspective of a different field (what would an ethicist, economist, psychologist, etc. criticize?).
3. Risk to focus on the wrong issues
With an immature technology you run the risk of underestimating its complexity. This might lead you to inadvertently focus on less important issues or to focus on a solution that overall brings more disadvantages than advantages because the second and third order effects of technology are hard to predict.
Tip 9: Leverage cross-disciplinary tech research, but time publications carefully for emerging fields. Look out for a technology that has already been written extensively in fields outside the law (natural sciences, information technology, economy, psychology, ethics, etc.). The core aspects of the technology must already be clear. However, keep in mind that the technology is still in its early stages and will evolve (and produce unforeseen effects). Finding a good timing to write and publish your paper is crucial. Look at How to write a truly innovative paper (Step 2) to understand how to find a good timing.
4. Risk to lag behind
The rapid pace of technological change can lead to quickly outdated papers. This results in your research becoming irrelevant to the current academic discussion and industry needs.
Tip 10: Ground transient tech topics in fundamental theories or broader trends. Focus on transient topics, but connect them with topics that are more stable in time. For example, you can (1) address a technology in the context of fundamental theories rather than specific frameworks that may quickly become outdated; or (2) find patterns in various emerging technologies and identify a general, long-lasting trend, then write the paper on that trend and use one (or more) emerging technologies as a mere example of that trend.
5. Risk to "waste" research efforts
If you do lag behind, or if a technology unexpectedly changes its trajectory, or if it becomes obsolete before reaching mainstream adoption, you risk that the paper itself becomes quickly obsolete and that you "wasted" research efforts.
Tip 11: Embrace the risks of innovative research, as even failed efforts can yield valuable insights. Acknowledge that writing innovative papers is usually more risky and that you are walking on an uncertain terrain. The problem is that, at the beginning, you can never be sure if your research efforts will lead to a seminal paper or one that will be forgotten in the long run. However, even in the latter case, it might lead to interesting insights that are crucial for somebody else (or even yourself years later) to come up with a brilliant idea. As it's either an important paper itself or it might lead to an important paper, your efforts will never be truly wasted. So, take that risk! Just make sure to mitigate the risks and include also low-risk papers in your agenda to get a more balanced research output.
Now, start exploring your next high-impact topic! 😎
Hello, I'm Nadine Rinderknecht
Founder of Blankpage. Experience in academia and law firms. Master of Law (University of Zurich) and other stuff.
Connect with me on LinkedIn.
Blankpage's mission is to inform about technology law and to inspire you to write innovative papers. Time to become a legal innovator.
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